Modeling the Impact of the AstraZeneca Vaccine on the Transmission Dynamics of COVID-19

Abstract

COVID-19 continues to pose a significant global threat, with millions of cases reported worldwide and
substantial mortality. This study develops a deterministic model to evaluate the impact of the AstraZeneca vaccine on the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. The disease-free equilibrium state of the model was determined, and the effective reproduction number for COVID-19, Re, was computed using the next-generation matrix method. The analysis reveals that Re is sensitive to vaccination parameters and establishes that the disease-free state is locally and globally asymptotically stable when Re is less than 1 but unstable when Re exceeds 1. The findings indicate that an increase in the vaccination rate (θ) and higher vaccination efficacy (γ) significantly reduce the number of COVID-19 infections. This, in turn, leads to a lower incidence of COVID-19 transmission. Enhanced vaccination coverage and effectiveness play a crucial role in preventing the spread of COVID-19, demonstrating the importance of robust immunization programs in public health