Mpox transmission dynamics: A mathematical modeling approach with bifurcation analysis of control interventions
Keywords:
Control interventions, Basic reproduction rate, Stability, Backward bifurcation, Mpox modelAbstract
A new nonlinear mathematical model of Mpox epidemic, encompassing any of the fea- sible interactions that provide the virus transmission in the population has been analyzed. The model involves vaccination, quarantine, and hospitalization as critical control interven- tions, emphasizing the influence of prompt quarantine strategy in preventing the spread of Mpox disease. The model identifies three endemic equilibria besides the Mpox-free equilib- rium. Moreover, the local and global stability of the equilibria are examined with respect to a basic reproduction rate. Furthermore, the model admits a backward bifurcation at a threshold parameter. At the same time, the method of proof yields sufficient conditions for the nonoccurrence of said phenomena, thereby enhancing the efficacy of prevention and supporting the eliminating of Mpox outbreaks.
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