Oil Theft in the Niger Delta and Its Economic Implications for Nigeria between 2021 and 2025

Abstract

Oil theft in the Niger Delta has long undermined Nigeria’s oil-dependent economy by lowering government revenue, harming the environment, and escalating socioeconomic unrest. Between 2021 and 2025, a time of policy, regulatory, and security reforms, such as the Petroleum Industry Act of 2021, this study examined patterns in crude oil theft and their economic effects on Nigeria. The study, which is based on the Frustration–Aggression Theory, sees oil theft as a reaction to marginalisation, perceived hardship, and environmental deterioration in communities that produce oil. A mixed-method approach used secondary data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, a survey of 278 respondents, twenty key informant interviews, and field observations in the states of Rivers, Delta, Bayelsa, Akwa Ibom, and Edo. While descriptive statistics and trend analysis examined quantitative evidence, thematic content analysis was used to assess qualitative material. According to the findings, oil theft reached its highest point in 2021, when almost 37.6 million barrels of crude oil worth more than US$2.6 billion were lost. Stronger security measures, better pipeline surveillance through private security contracts, and regulatory changes all contributed to a notable decrease in theft starting in 2022. Nonetheless, small-scale artisanal refining persists due to host communities’ lack of employment prospects, poverty, environmental harm, and unemployment. The study concludes that in order to maintain recent gains, security enforcement must be combined with community development, environmental restoration, economic diversification, transparency, and more robust institutional oversight throughout the Niger Delta.