Modeling the Impact of Vaccination on Newcastle Disease Dynamics in Caged Chickens
Keywords:
Newcastle disease, Caged chicken, Vaccine, Dynamics, RevaccinationAbstract
Newcastle disease continues to have a significant economic impact on farmers and food security. This
study develops and analyzes a deterministic mathematical model to investigate the effect of vaccination
on the transmission dynamics of Newcastle disease in caged chicken populations. The model is based
on the Susceptible Exposed-Infected Vaccinated Revaccinated Recovered Susceptible (SEIVVrRS) framework,
adapted to capture the unique characteristics of Newcastle disease transmission. The disease free equilibrium
of the model was computed, and the basic reproduction number for Newcastle disease was calculated using
the next generation matrix method. Both analytical results and numerical simulations show that frequent
vaccinations increase the number of susceptible chickens by reducing the at-risk chicken population. Additionally, re-vaccination significantly enhances immunity, resulting in a higher number of recovered chickens.
Sensitivity analysis indicates that the recruitment rate of chickens, the effective contact rate between susceptible and infectious chickens, and the natural death rate of chickens are the most sensitive parameters for
targeting in disease control strategies. Therefore, the findings from this study can support farmers and food
security practitioners in decision making regarding Newcastle disease control strategies and emphasize their
crucial role in poultry disease management
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Copyright (c) 2024 Odeli J. Kigodi, Mohamedi S. Manjenga, Nathanael C. Katundu, Chacha S. Chacha, Joshua A. Mwasunda, Nkuba Nyerere
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